From Vision to Resilience: A Strategic Blueprint for Africa’s Green Transition

The adoption of Agenda 2063 in 2015 by the 24th Ordinary Assembly of the Heads of State and Government of the African Union (AU) marked a transformational drive to advance economic, social and environmental development in Africa. One of the key goals of the Agenda is to achieve ‘environmentally sustainable and climate resilient economies and communities across Africa.’ 

The ongoing global green transition raises complex economic, social, and environmental questions for Africa. Although the continent is not a homogeneous geographical unit, countries share similarities in terms of historical dependence on abundant natural resources and deep vulnerabilities to the climate change emergency. 

Africa is home to some of the world’s largest exporters of oil, natural gas and solid minerals, with these commodities accounting for more than 60 percent of the gross domestic product (GDP) in many African countries. Thus, despite Africa’s comparatively lower historical contributions to greenhouse gases (GHGs) emissions, fossil-fuel-dependent economies and a rapidly growing population mean it currently has one of the fastest growth rates in GHG emissions. At the same time, Africa faces a complex energy poverty emergency (defined as ‘the inability of households to access electricity and modern energy services at an affordable cost’). For example, Africa has the lowest electrification rate globally, with more than 600 million Africans still lacking access to electricity, an additional 30% suffer from prolonged power outages and undersupply.

The AU has therefore announced the African Common Position on Energy Access and Just Transition, which aims to use all of the continent’s natural resources, including natural gas, to tackle Africa’s energy poverty emergency, consistent with the United Nations Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 7 on clean, stable, and affordable energy for all by the year 2030. 

Thus, while the narrative about green transition in the Global North entails decarbonization and a transition to a net-zero economy, for many African countries, the green transition is about resilience. The continent needs a just, equitable and inclusive green transition that is Africa-led and owned, and leaves no one behind. Yet, ten years after the adoption of Agenda 2063, the path to Africa’s green transition objectives remainsuncertain. 

Pillars of Africa’s Green Transition

The framework for this transition rests on three central pillars of Africa’s green transition agenda. First is an urgent need for climate resilience and natural disaster preparedness and prevention. For low-lying African countries such as Seychelles, Comoros, Madagascar, and Mauritius, as well as arid countries such as Sudan, Chad, Mali, Mauritania and Niger, climate change is already posing existential threats, including droughts, water scarcity, land conflicts and displacements. As a result, the green transition must accelerate the development of climate-smart infrastructure, early warning and disaster response systems. 

A second pillar involves energy and economic diversification. As demand for fossil fuels - the bedrock of several African economies - reduces, the need for a green transition agenda becomes a necessity. 

The continent must leverage its abundant solar and wind energy resources to position itself as a global investment hub, boosting economic diversification. Also, as global demand for energy transition minerals (ETMs), such as cobalt, copper, graphite, lithium, nickel, manganese, phosphate rock, zinc and rare earth metals, needed to power renewable energy technologies and infrastructure, increases, Africa has enormous potential to build on its supply of these minerals. As a result, countries can transform from a resource-dependent region into a global innovation and manufacturing powerhouse through frameworks like the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA). 

The third and perhaps most important pillar is localism and social inclusion. The green transition must make provisions to mitigate the economic impacts, especially on employees affected by the energy transition. Furthermore, the design and implementation of clean energy transition projects must be rights-based, preventing modern slavery, land grabs, and forced displacements while ensuring gender-based inclusions in the energy sector. The green transition also provides enormous opportunities to strengthen clean technology entrepreneurship, energy citizenship and local participation in innovation that advance an inclusive transition agenda.

Barriers and Challenges 

Despite the enormous potential of the green transition to unlock socio-economic transformation across Africa, several legal and institutional barriers will need to be addressed. A key obstacle is the huge financing gap. With the African Group of Negotiators (AGN) on climate change calling for $1.3 trillion per annum to finance climate-related development across the continent, only 2% of new global green investments are going to Africa despite the continent’s solar, wind and renewable energy potential. The significant financing gaps, coupled with the growing debt burdens of many African countries, underscore the need for more international solidarity and support for Africa’s green transition. 

A climate-ravaged Africa will heighten global insecurity, mass migration, water, energy and food scarcity and poverty, all of which will place pressure on the international community. An Africa-led transition must balance climate change imperatives with progress in all aspects. There is a need for increased international ambition and commitment to scale up financing for Africa’s green transition agenda, as part of international solidarity needed under the Paris Agreement to advance global climate action.

This disparity is further compounded by technology gaps, where a heavy reliance on imported equipment inflates cost and hinders local adaptation. Advancing Africa’s green transition will require a transformational shift from a one-track focus on technology importation to technology absorption, that is, ‘the process of learning to understand, utilise and replicate technology, including the capacity to choose and adapt it to local conditions.’ Robust legal frameworks must be implemented to boost investors’ confidence that transferred technology will be protected from arbitrary confiscation or abuse. 

In addition to addressing legal gaps relating to innovation and IPR, supportive legal frameworks are required to incentivize investment in Africa’s green transition. Green investments, like any other foreign direct investments (FDIs), will flow to regions with conducive investment climates, and comprehensive supportive laws that streamline the green investment process.

Additionally, capacity gaps limit the coherent and coordinated implementation of the green transition agenda in Africa. Studies have highlighted that, due to a lack of training, equipment and tools, regulators are unable to coherently monitor compliance with sustainability standards. A lack of statistical and data-gathering technologies and tools often means that regulators in a number of African countries simply can’t transparently collate, evaluate and process data relating to the green transition. 

Opportunities and Ways Forward

The success of the green transition in Africa will depend on a sophisticated mix of international solidarity, regional knowledge exchange and domestic legal and governance reforms. Developed countries have tosupport in terms of providing a consistent flow of technology, financial support, debt restructuring and capacity development, in line with the Paris Agreement. 

Higher education institutions have key roles to play in designing innovative training and research programs that provide skills and knowledge acquisition opportunities for innovators, financial institutions, regulators and other stakeholders involved in green transition programs. Simultaneously,the AU and other relevant regional agencies must adopt unified guidelines for the integration of the green transition agenda in all aspects of trade, investment and financing. 

A pre-packaged, imported solution neglecting the intricate socio-economic realities of Africa will make little or no progress. The continent’s green transition program must be designed, led and owned by its own, ensuring that the set agenda and pursuit of environmental sustainability concurrently eliminate poverty, boost long-term growth and promote regional dignity.

The above content is based on The Ecological Transition in Africa, and has been edited and republished with full permission.

Professor Damilola S. Olawuyi, SAN (QC), FCIArb, is a Professor and UNESCO Chairholder on Environmental Law and Sustainable Development at the College of Law.